As Donald Trump prepares to step back into the Oval Office, his recent NBC Meet the Press interview shed light on the policy agenda he plans to unleash in January. Promises of sweeping tariffs, mass deportations, and tax cuts have reignited debates over global economic stability, with potential implications stretching far beyond the United States. For Britain, […]
Monetary Policy
U.S. inflation cools down, falling to lowest level in almost a year
U.S. inflation slowed for its sixth consecutive months in December and fell to its lowest level in more than a year. This is a further sign that price pressures may have peaked and would justify a slowdown in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the consumer price index […]
No end in sight for UK house prices?
Following the catastrophic “mini-budget” that caused interest rates to skyrocket on the few mortgages still on offer, UK house prices continue to follow a downward trend. Indeed, house prices have dropped for four consecutive months now. According to mortgage provider Halifax, average house prices fell 1.5% between November and December. The decline is not as […]
Fed pushes back against “unwarranted” easing expectations
On December 14, 2022, the Fed hiked by another 50bps. More interestingly, markets are pricing a further tightening of market conditions. Expectations for the trajectory of Fed rates moves has shifted hawkishly since the December FOMC statement. It seems that markets have finally recalled to “not fight the Fed.” As some of you might remember, […]
Inflation slows down to 5.9% in France in December
French inflation unexpectedly slowed to 5.9% (for the last twelve months) in December 2022. Inflation stood at 5.6% in September and 6.2% for both October and November. The slowdown in the French inflation rate is mostly due to a decline in energy prices, and to a lesser extent, in services. The drop in energy prices […]
German CPI slows down to 9.6%
Following Spain’s report that inflation slowed down, Germany just announced something similar. German inflation slowed more than expected in December (EU Harmonized -1.2% MoM vs -0.8% exp). This would be the biggest MoM drop since January 2015. Bloomberg noted that the decline in the main rate masked an increase in food costs across Germany at […]