Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. UK house-price data and mortgage rates change frequently; always verify the latest figures from Halifax, Nationwide, the ONS, and the Bank of England before making financial decisions.
We first wrote this piece in January 2023, after the Truss–Kwarteng mini-budget had just broken the gilt market and Halifax had posted four consecutive monthly falls in UK house prices. The title asked whether there was any end in sight to the slide. Three years on, we now have the answer. It’s worth going back through what we said, what actually happened, and what we would say differently in April 2026.
What we said in January 2023
The original piece made three claims. First, that the average UK property price had dropped to £281,272 in December 2022, down from a peak of £294,000 in August — a 4.3% retracement in four months. Second, that a Resolution Foundation estimate of roughly 3 million households facing a £3,000-a-year mortgage-cost increase meant the demand shock was only just starting. Third, that even though Nationwide and TSB had already begun trimming fixed-rate products (five-year fixes at 4.84–5.49% respectively), the “no end in sight” framing meant caution: more downside was likely before the market found a floor.
What actually happened: the mini-budget low was close to the bottom
In hindsight, the market was already close to stabilising when we wrote that piece. The floor turned out to arrive much earlier and at a shallower level than the “no end in sight” framing implied.
Halifax data confirms that the headline average UK house price bottomed at roughly £281,000 in late 2022/early 2023, then meandered sideways for most of 2023 before a gradual recovery through 2024 and 2025. By March 2026, the average UK property sold for £299,677, per Halifax — still essentially flat versus the August 2022 peak in nominal terms, but 6.6% above the January 2023 trough we identified as “no end in sight.” Annual growth is a modest +0.8%.
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, UK house prices have fallen meaningfully over the period: CPI is up roughly 13% between January 2023 and March 2026, so a flat nominal price is a real-terms decline of similar magnitude. That is the most important nuance the 2023 piece got right in spirit if not in timing — the “crash” happened quietly, as inflation did the repricing while nominal prices held steady.
The three forces that stopped the fall
1. The Jeremy Hunt fiscal reset
Hunt’s November 2022 Autumn Statement and the subsequent 2023 Budget reversed essentially all of Kwarteng’s unfunded tax cuts. Ten-year gilt yields, which had spiked to 4.5% in late September 2022, drifted back down into a 3.8–4.2% range through 2023. Five-year fixed mortgage rates, which had peaked near 6.5% in October 2022, were back in the low 5s by summer 2023. That relief wasn’t dramatic, but it was enough to stop the panic.
2. The labour market didn’t break
The 2023 piece worried that the cost-of-living crisis would force distressed sales. In practice, UK unemployment stayed below 4.5% throughout 2023–2024 and wage growth ran at 6–8% nominal, which eroded the real value of existing mortgage debt even while nominal house prices stagnated. Repossessions rose modestly but never reached the levels seen in 2008–2010. The affordability squeeze was real, but it manifested as delayed trades and smaller transactions rather than forced sales.
3. The Bank of England’s eventual pivot
The Bank of England took its base rate to 5.25% in August 2023 and held there until the first cut in August 2024. By April 2026, base rate sits at 3.75% after cuts in August 2024, February 2025, May 2025, August 2025, and December 2025. Mortgage pricing has come with it: five-year fixes are now 5.50–5.75%, and two-year fixes around 5.80%. Those are still a long way from the sub-2% deals of 2021, but they’re a full percentage point below the 2023 peaks that were doing the damage.
What the 2023 piece missed
Two things, mainly.
First, we underweighted the power of stretched mortgage terms. The share of UK first-time buyers taking 30+ year mortgages has climbed to roughly 62%, and the average FTB now takes a 31-year term. When monthly affordability binds, borrowers extend duration rather than accept a lower loan amount — which is exactly what happened from 2023 onwards. That cushioned nominal prices on the way down and is a structural floor under the market that hasn’t existed in previous cycles.
Second, we underweighted net migration as a demand support. The ONS initially reported net migration of 745,000 for the year to June 2022, and the 2023–2024 figures remained high by historical standards. That provided a steady bid for rental and entry-level housing through 2023–2024 that we did not fully price in. Net migration has since collapsed to around 204,000 in the year to June 2025, which is now a drag rather than a support — but by then, the market had already stabilised.
What to do with that lesson in 2026
Three practical takeaways for buyers, sellers, and investors still weighing their options.
For buyers, the 2023 script of “wait for the crash” did not work. The crash arrived as real-terms price erosion rather than as a dramatic nominal drop, and it was spread over three years rather than compressed into one. If you wait for a headline-grabbing nominal drop before acting, you may wait a very long time. The better question is whether your local market and your personal affordability make sense today — the 2026 two-speed market analysis has the regional detail.
For sellers, the market in most of the UK is transactional rather than price-led. Properties that are priced realistically move; stretched asking prices sit. That is a very different dynamic from 2015–2021, when rising tide covered all priced-to-sell mistakes. Expect negotiation.
For investors, the big story is that buy-to-let has continued to be squeezed by tax changes — a trajectory we tracked in the buy-to-let piece — even as headline yields have recovered. Many UK landlords we speak to are actively looking cross-Channel for alternatives; our France buying guide and SCI structure walkthrough are the starting points for that route.
London: a separate story
The 2023 piece flagged London’s £541,239 average and noted we couldn’t see the prime Zone 1 figure, where the drop was likely larger. That instinct turned out to be correct. Prime central London has continued to underperform the UK average through 2023–2025, partly because of the non-dom reforms, partly because of higher SDLT surcharges on additional properties, and partly because the natural buyers (overseas wealth) have faced tighter compliance. The Outer South East posted a -0.7% annual change in Q1 2026 per Nationwide, the only UK region in negative territory. We go deeper on the capital’s divergence in the London housing piece.
Frequently asked questions
Did UK house prices actually crash after the 2022 mini-budget?
Not in the way many expected. Nominal prices fell around 4–5% from the August 2022 peak to the early-2023 trough, then went sideways for most of 2023 and gradually recovered. Including cumulative inflation of about 13% over the 2023–2026 period, real-terms prices are meaningfully lower, but the expected dramatic nominal crash never arrived.
What is the average UK house price in 2026?
Halifax has the average UK property selling for £299,677 in March 2026, with annual growth of +0.8%. Regional variation is now very wide: Northern Ireland is up 9.5% year-on-year, Scotland +3.0%, Wales +2.7%, England +0.9%, while the Outer South East is down 0.7%.
Are UK mortgage rates still at 6%?
No. Five-year fixed rates peaked around 6.5% in late 2022/early 2023 and have since drifted down to 5.50–5.75%, with two-year fixes slightly higher at around 5.80%. The Bank of England base rate is 3.75% as of April 2026, and further cuts are priced in for later in the year.
Should I buy a UK home in 2026?
That depends on your personal affordability, your local market, and your time horizon. The “wait for the crash” strategy of 2022–2023 largely didn’t pay off in nominal terms — prices stabilised and then grew modestly. Real-terms affordability has improved thanks to wage growth and inflation, but mortgage rates are still well above 2021 levels. Our 2026 UK housing update covers the current regional picture.
Is London still falling?
The Outer South East is the only broad region still in annual decline (-0.7% in Q1 2026). Prime central London has been notably weak, reflecting non-dom reforms, SDLT surcharges, and reduced overseas demand. Greater London as a whole has outperformed prime central but underperformed the UK average.
Has the buy-to-let market recovered?
No. The combination of Section 24 tax changes, higher SDLT surcharges for additional properties, and tighter affordability rules has kept new buy-to-let acquisitions well below 2015–2016 levels. Headline rental yields have recovered modestly, but after-tax returns for higher-rate UK taxpayers remain under pressure. Many UK investors continue to look at French property or other alternatives.
Bottom line
In January 2023 we asked whether there was any end in sight to the UK house-price slide. The answer, it turned out, was: yes, closer than it looked, and the floor came in shallower than the bears expected. The real adjustment happened in slow motion over three years via inflation and stretched mortgage terms rather than as a dramatic nominal drop. For most buyers and sellers that was actually the better outcome — an orderly repricing rather than a forced one. For anyone still waiting on the sidelines for a 2008-style crash, the lesson is that this cycle is not that cycle.
Related reading
- UK house prices in 2026: the market that stopped inflating — the current regional and rate-path picture.
- London housing: the divergence explained — why the capital has underperformed.
- How the government squeezed the buy-to-let market — the tax and regulatory trajectory.
- Buying property in France: a complete guide for British investors — the cross-Channel alternative.
- How to create a Société Civile in France — the structuring route used by most UK investors going cross-Channel.
